Well, first, let's set the record straight: the iPad is just a mobile version of Microsoft's revolutionary Surface that was unveiled in 2007 and we all know how different computing is today, right? (Someone from the year 2007 wouldn't even recognize computers today, right?!)
As an aside, I'm just amazed at how many big, Earth-shattering advances in computing are really just eye-candy. One of Vista's big selling points was Aero. "What is Aero?" you ask? Well, Aero is the technology that enables stuff like translucent window panes in Vista and W7 computers (so long as you have compatible hardware and software). Yes, really, translucent window panes. That's a feature? When have you ever needed to have translucent window panes to get something done? It's useless, resource-hogging, hardware-requiring eye candy. So are bouncing windows and and a lot of other so-called revolutions. I just don't see eye-candy as solving any fundamental problem with computers. So, when Microsoft first unveiled Surface, I was unimpressed.
But the iPad is mobile. Honestly, I find this a much more compelling package for Microsoft's vision of a simple-to-use computer. I'm confident that the iPad will offer a very slick user experience for doing the increasing array of tasks that one currently does on the iPhone. You're at dinner talking about how crappy Brad Pitt looked with a beard, some nerd bows his head over the device, and... Bing! a couple minutes later he has a crappy Brad Pitt picture for you. Or you access Google maps and find the ice cream parlor. Or you get the email that closes the big deal while at dinner with friends. I get mobile. Mobile is compelling and I'd even use something named "pad" if it was the most compelling.
But, where's the revolution? Will I be able to discard my desktop because I have this over-sized phoneless phone? No, I don't think so. You see, the iPad is half a computer. It's a slick half that will do a whole lot of interesting things, but it's missing a keyboard.
The keyboard is a "killer app" for most computers. I'm using the keyboard right now to type this. I doubt that I'll want to do much emailing, blogging, report-writing, note-taking, data analyzing, homework writing, twittering, etc. on a device where each keystoke will be a hassle. In fact, I know this will be true for the iPad because it has been true for all the tiny devices I have used with miniature keyboards or (shudder) on-screen keyboards. In fact, I can explain this really easily—in exactly the same way that a touch-screen gesture computer is easy to navigate, it is proportionately hard to produce any written content. And I don't think I'm exaggerating to say that producing written content is what sells most computers (at least for work and school).
In fact, it's a whole lot easier than that... since the iPad won't have an office suite, it will frustrate any serious use:
- Need to check what Billy's homework is tonight? No sweat, just navigate to his teacher's website, click on the day's lesson plan... Oh crap, she uses PowerPoint and it won't open.
- Well, let's see what MegaACME's emailed offer to us is.. Oh shoot, it's a Word document and I cannot open Word documents on my iPad.
- Well, let's just add the expense of this dinner to my expense spreadsheet.. oh #*^!@# it doesn't do spreadsheets either.
So, in the end, I can clearly see what the iPad will be. It will be a slick device for consuming digital content. You can surf the web (most of it), you can read your email (although less so the attachments), it's great for playing music and watching video's (except, not on YouTube because the iPad doesn't support Flash). But to do any real work, you will need a keyboard. Apple will sell you one, but at that point, I don't know what the iPad will do that a netbook doesn't. And I can think of a lot of things that a netbook will do, that the iPad will not:
- Run two apps simultaneously (surf the web while you write a report while you listen to music)
- Run Microsoft Office (or any other Office that you buy/download)
- Access your digital pictures on your SD card and your data on your USB drive
- Back-up data to an external optical or NAS drive
- Plug into a wired network
- Use a really big monitor and full-size keyboard and mouse, when they are available
- Run whatever apps you want, rather than the apps at the Apple iPad store
Not that I'm predicting a flop. Buy Apple stock now because soon geeks will start queuing to buy an iPad. Dozens of young people of all ages will enjoy playing games, surfing, and generally enjoying digital entertainment on this device. It will be cool.
But we've seen revolutions, and this is no revolution. Someday you will be able to dictate documents to platforms the size of the iPad. That may be revolutionary, we'll have to see (many places where you will want to use a mobile device won't be private enough for dictation).
